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Victorian government lacks volume plan and supply strategy

The government is teasing new brands entering Victoria, while the local industry disputes consultation calls over a four-year volume plan

Victorian suppliers and operators have remained united in calling for the Victorian government to develop a plan that keeps jobs in the state’s bus industry following the recent deferral of orders.

On Christmas Eve last year, the state government sent a letter to the state’s operators that confirmed a deferral of all bus orders, both diesel and zero-emissions, while also extending the lifespan of current diesel buses on the roads for up to five years.

The Victorian government says that bus manufacturers from outside of the state have expressed interest in moving into Victoria. It also provided a bare-bones four-year plan for bus orders in the state without going into details of what this will look like in the next year.

ABC reached out to the Victorian Department of Transport and Planning (DTP) seeking more clarity for the state’s bus industry as members continue to worry about the future of bus and coach manufacturing in the state.

In response, DTP told ABC the state government is still planning on following its Zero Emission Bus Transition Plan that it released in November last year.

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“From July 2025, the Victorian government will commence transitioning the metropolitan and larger regional operator bus fleets with 250 low floor buses expected to be replaced over the next four years,” a DTP spokesperson told ABC.

“The ZEB transition plan includes a staged approach based on direct feedback from industry that smaller operators need more time to transition.

“Smaller regional operators, through the Bus Association Victoria, told us they need more time to make the shift to ZEBs and the Department of Transport and Planning will work with these operators on the life extension of existing vehicles by up to five years, consistent with other jurisdictions.”

The DTP says this plan was informed by trials, industry engagement and consultation over three years with operators and manufacturers across the state, including regional businesses and associations like the Bus Association of Victoria.

Industry response

In response, members of the state bus industry say they did support deferring the commencement of transitioning the regional and rural bus infrastructure to zero-emissions as of 2030, but at no stage did they call for or support stopping contracted bus replacement regimes. Members also confirmed they didn’t support the extension of working life for existing contracted buses.

“We have not been asked if there were any problems with introducing zero-emissions buses,” a Victorian bus operator told ABC.

“The roadblock for the introduction of battery electric vehicles isn’t the vehicles themselves, but the inability of the state to create a workable system for purchasing, operating and mantaining the associated infrastructure.”

The operator says uncertainty around the purchase of power, and the reimbursement of that cost, is also preventing the state’s operators from moving to zero-emissions buses.

“The sensible solution to school bus replacements is to remove them from the ZEB mandate and continue replacing them with diesel buses. This reduces emissions, improves safety and maintains our supply chains,” the operator says.

“Using ZEB as an excuse to do the opposite is unconscionable and dishonest.”

Another operator didn’t know of any operators who requested an extension to the life of their buses, instead suggesting the state should allow operators to continue buying Euro 6 or hybrid models.

“The government has seen an opportunity to cut costs by simply cancelling/delaying all replacements for the next five years,” the operator told ABC.

“This just creates a bigger problem for a future government – in 2030 there will be five times the number of buses requiring replacement that there is now.

“This also means that, for the next five years, we will have a large number of 18 to 23 year old buses running around on school runs that are much less environmentally friendly than a Euro 6 equivalent.”

A Victorian bus supplier has also questioned the number of orders allocated to the zero-emissions bus transition over the next four years, with the current Melbourne Bus Franchise order numbers seeing roughly 36 zero-emissions buses ordered each year – a fraction of replacement needs and all back-ended. The industry has confirmed there is “basically no volume” for the first two years of the franchise, meaning there’s a big gap in order numbers.

New manufacturers coming in?

In its response to queries about the four-year order plan and what that means for the state’s bus industry, the DTP told ABC it may look to brands currently not in the state to fulfil future orders.

“Several bus manufacturers have also shown interest in establishing a local presence, or growing their footprint here in Victoria, given the new opportunities this transition presents,” the spokesperson told ABC.

“The transition offers potentially significant new opportunities for local Victorian businesses in manufacturing zero-emission buses and ZEB components and constructing and fitting out ZEB depots.

“We’re continuing to work with bus operators and manufacturers to maximise the local benefits as we work through this transition and deliver a more sustainable bus fleet.”

The DTP says the 250 low-floor buses expected to be transitioned over the next four years are made up of a combination of replacement buses under the five Metropolitan ZEB Franchises (MZF) announced last year, the Metropolitan Bus Franchise (MBF) and the larger regional operator contracts in towns such as Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat and Mildura.

It also says it’s looking at strengthening local manufacturing capabilities in high floor buses for its smaller regional operators.

For the local industry, this still leaves plenty of people worried and with questions for the state government about what will transpire in the near future.

“We’re genuinely concerned by the government’s need to bring in new suppliers when there is little work forecast and even less open dialogue,” an industry expert told ABC.

“There are many suppliers here already who can build buses to meet their requirements, so what is the government really trying to do?”

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