Job ads in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 7.5 percent in April, taking the annual slump to 49.9 percent
Job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by 7.5 percent in April, taking the annual slump to 49.9 percent.
The ANZ Job Advertisement Series reveals newspaper job ads improved by 3.1 percent in April, while internet job ads dropped by 8.1 percent.
In trend terms, the number of job ads fell by 7.1 percent in April, to be 48.3 percent lower than 12 months earlier.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, Warren Hogan, says job ads have fallen in each of the past 12 months, suggesting that employment in Australia will contract over the coming year.
“Most of the 1.7-percentage point increase in the unemployment rate thus far has been due to labour force growth and rising participation, rather than falling employment,” he says.
“However, the ongoing weakness in job ads suggests that falling employment levels will be the key driver of rising unemployment over the year ahead.”
Newspaper ads have fallen by a record 58.9 percent over the past year, settling at an average 8,203 per week.
When converting to trend terms, the number of newspaper job ads fell by 6 percent in April, to be 56 percent lower than a year ago.
Similarly, internet job ads decreased by 7.2 percent to be 47.7 percent lower than April 2008.
On a state level, Queensland experienced a 0.3 percent rise in newspaper job ad, while some states recorded negative increases.
Hogan says the numbers are consistent with the forecast of an unemployment rate topping 7 percent and peaking at 8 percent in the next 12 to 18 months.
ANZ Economics and Markets Research is predicting unemployment to reach around 8.25 percent in 2010.
It also expects the official forecast for the unemployment rate to be raised to at least 8 percent with the release of next week’s Budget.